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北京已经全面进入存量房时代

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年10月21日 11:41:24
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(均)(创)(新)(高)(。但)(对)(比)(数)(据)(不)(难)(发)(现)(,二)(手)(房)(市)(场)(成)(交)(占)(比)(逐)(年)(上)(升)(。  根)(据)(亚)(豪)(机)(构)(统)(计)(,今)(年)(前)(11月)(,北)(京)(新)(建)(商)(品)(住)(宅)((剔)(除)(保)(障)(房)()共)(成)(交)(72631套)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(31.65%。而)(根)(据)(伟)(业)(我)(爱)(我)(家)(市)(场)(研)(究)(院)(统)(计)(,前)(11月)(北)(京)(全)(市)(二)(手)(住)(宅)(成)(交)(总)(量)(逾)(17.4万)(套)(,预)(计)(今)(年)(全)(年)(成)(交)(量)(或)(将)(达)(到)(20万)(套)(。  住)(建)(部)(政)(策)(研)(究)(中)(心)(主)(任)(秦)(虹)(曾)(公)(开)(表)(示)(,判)(断)(一)(个)(地)(方)(的)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(是)(存)(量)(房)(市)(场)(还)(是)(增)(量)(房)(市)(场)(主)(要)(以)(两)(个)(指)(标)(来)(衡)(量)(。“对)(住)(宅)(市)(场)(来)(说)(,如)(果)(房)(屋)(交)(易)(以)(二)(手)(房)(交)(易)(为)(主)(,占)(的)(比)(重)(超)(过)(了)(新)(房)(交)(易)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(它)(已)(经)(开)(始)(进)(入)(存)(量)(房)(了)(。按)(照)(这)(样)(的)(指)(标)(,中)(国)(现)(在)(四)(个)(一)(线)(城)(市)(北)(上)(广)(深)(,二)(手)(房)(交)(易)(量)(已)(经)(超)(过)(新)(房)(,可)(以)(说)(一)(线)(城)(市)(已)(经)(进)(入)(存)(量)(房)(时)(代)(了)(。”  从)(今)(年)(前)(11月)(北)(京)(市)(场)(的)(成)(交)(情)(况)(来)(看)(,北)(京)(无)(疑)(正)(在)(进)(入)(存)(量)(房)(市)(场)(。  实)(际)(上)(,2009年)(北)(京)(二)(手)(房)(成)(交)(量)(攀)(上)(了)(近)(15年)(以)(来)(的)(最)(高)(峰)(,达)(到)(25万)(套)(。同)(时)(,2009年)(成)(为)(新)(房)(和)(二)(手)(房)(交)(易)(比)(重)(的)(分)(水)(岭)(。自)(2009年)(北)(京)(二)(手)(房)(交)(易)(量)(首)(超)(新)(房)(开)(始)(迄)(今)(已)(领)(先)(7个)(年)(头)(,且)(量)(差)(越)(来)(越)(大)(。  同)(时)(,伴)(随)(着)(北)(京)(土)(地)(和)(新)(房)(供)(应)(结)(构)(的)(变)(化)(,二)(手)(房)(成)(交)(超)(过)(新)(房)(成)(交)(的)(趋)(势)(将)(不)(断)(加)(深)(。  中)(原)(地)(产)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,截)(至)(12月)(15日)(,北)(京)(新)(建)(商)(品)(房)(住)(宅)((剔)(除)(保)(障)(房)()供)(应)(量)(为)(40085套)(,只)(占)(到)(去)(年)(全)(年)(供)(应)(量)(的)(53%,创)(下)(近)(十)(年)(以)(来)(最)(低)(水)(平)(。  与)(此)(同)(时)(,土)(地)(供)(应)(的)(减)(少)(,意)(味)(着)(新)(房)(供)(应)(趋)(减)(将)(会)(持)(续)(。根)(据)(亚)(豪)(机)(构)(数)(据)(,2015年)((截)(至)(12月)(15日)()北)(京)(土)(地)(市)(场)(建)(设)(用)(地)(面)(积)(和)(规)(划)(建)(筑)(面)(积)(同)(比)(分)(别)(减)(少)(30%、14%,这)(一)(土)(地)(成)(交)(量)(也)(创)(造)(了)(近)(8年)(的)(新)(低)(。  刚)(需)(、刚)(改)(回)(归)(二)(手)(房)(市)(场)(  土)(地)(供)(应)(量)(锐)(减)(和)(土)(地)(成)(交)(价)(格)(高)(企)(,意)(味)(着)(未)(来)(北)(京)(新)(房)(市)(场)(的)(高)(端)(化)(趋)(势)(。仅)(仅)(是)(在)(三)(年)(前)(,北)(京)(五)(环)(、六)(环)(周)(边)(刚)(需)(盘)(云)(集)(。而)(现)(在)(,五)(环)(周)(边)(的)(地)(块)(楼)(面)(价)(甚)(至)(已)(超)(过)(4万)(元)(/平)(方)(米)(。对)(于)(刚)(需)(、改)(善)(人)(群)(来)(说)(,新)(房)(市)(场)(可)(选)(择)(的)(余)(地)(越)(来)(越)(小)(。  在)(业)(内)(看)(来)(,未)(来)(北)(京)(楼)(市)(将)(呈)(现)(首)(套)(房)(二)(手)(房)(化)(、首)(次)(改)(善)(新)(房)(化)(、高)(端)(集)(中)(化)(的)(趋)(势)(。  “随)(着)(房)(价)(与)(地)(价)(的)(上)(涨)(,五)(环)(以)(内)(除)(了)(少)(量)(自)(住)(房)(以)(外)(,高)(端)(住)(宅)(将)(会)(占)(据)(主)(要)(市)(场)(供)(应)(份)(额)(。对)(于)(“买)(一)(卖)(一)(”的)(一)(般)(改)(善)(型)(购)(房)(者)(来)(说)(,在)(卖)(掉)(旧)(房)(之)(后)(,虽)(然)(首)(付)(比)(例)(低)(至)(3成)(之)(后)(尚)(且)(能)(够)(负)(担)(,但)(由)(于)(月)(供)(过)(高)(,已)(经)(很)(难)(在)(同)(区)(域)(的)(新)(房)(市)(场)(找)(到)(面)(积)(、价)(格)(匹)(配)(的)(产)(品)(,因)(此)(只)(能)(向)(更)(远)(地)(段)(或)(者)(二)(手)(房)(市)(场)(分)(流)(。”亚)(豪)(机)(构)(市)(场)(总)(监)(郭)(毅)(表)(示)(。  值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,目)(前)(刚)(需)(、刚)(改)(已)(经)(开)(始)(逐)(步)(回)(归)(二)(手)(房)(市)(场)(。  根)(据)(伟)(业)(我)(爱)(我)(家)(市)(场)(研)(究)(院)(数)(据)(,今)(年)(11月)(,二)(居)(室)(仍)(是)(二)(手)(房)(市)(场)(的)(主)(力)(成)(交)(户)(型)(,成)(交)(占)(比)(逾)(五)(成)(,且)(成)(交)(均)(价)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(1.5%。  虽)(然)(目)(前)(城)(六)(区)(是)(二)(手)(房)(成)(交)(的)(主)(战)(场)(,但)(伴)(随)(着)(郊)(区)(刚)(需)(产)(品)(供)(应)(减)(少)(,区)(域)(里)(的)(二)(手)(房)(成)(交)(也)(日)(趋)(活)(跃)(。根)(据)(伟)(业)(我)(爱)(我)(家)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,今)(年)(前)(10月)(,在)(远)(郊)(和)(近)(郊)(区)(县)(的)(成)(交)(中)(,近)(60%的)(二)(手)(住)(宅)(交)(易)(发)(生)(在)(昌)(平)(、通)(州)(和)(大)(兴)(三)(区)(,随)(着)(这)(三)(个)(区)(域)(各)(方)(面)(配)(套)(设)(施)(的)(加)(速)(完)(善)(,成)(交)(占)(比)(也)(在)(逐)(步)(提)(升)(。  影)(响)(  1 资)(本)(进)(军)(存)(量)(房)(市)(场)(  中)(金)(公)(司)(关)(于)(全)(国)(主)(要)(城)(市)(存)(量)(房)(调)(查)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,北)(京)(、天)(津)(、南)(京)(、苏)(州)(、上)(海)(、杭)(州)(、深)(圳)(、广)(州)(、重)(庆)(、成)(都)(、武)(汉)(、郑)(州)(12个)(中)(心)(城)(市)(的)(存)(量)(住)(宅)(年)(交)(易)(总)(规)(模)(已)(经)(将)(近)(2万)(亿)(元)(,深)(圳)(、北)(京)(、上)(海)(和)(广)(州)(的)(二)(手)(房)(挂)(牌)(量)(甚)(至)(已)(经)(超)(过)(了)(新)(房)(总)(可)(售)(量)(。基)(于)(对)(20个)(城)(市)(的)(二)(手)(房)(挂)(牌)(量)(和)(新)(房)(总)(可)(售)(量)(的)(测)(算)(,到)(2016年)(,预)(计)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(的)(新)(房)(供)(应)(将)(平)(均)(同)(比)(下)(滑)(12%,上)(述)(城)(市)(的)(存)(量)(市)(场)(交)(易)(份)(额)(也)(将)(持)(续)(扩)(大)(。  眼)(下)(,互)(联)(网)(房)(产)(平)(台)(拥)(有)(资)(本)(支)(撑)(,与)(传)(统)(中)(介)(的)(竞)(争)(正)(处)(于)(白)(热)(化)(。在)(业)(内)(看)(来)(,产)(业)(链)(上)(的)(各)(方)(,都)(在)(加)(速)(整)(合)(,传)(统)(中)(介)(互)(联)(网)(化)(、互)(联)(网)(中)(介)(开)(始)(下)(沉)(、开)(发)(商)(积)(极)(转)(型)(、代)(理)(机)(构)(调)(整)(商)(业)(模)(式)(。  与)(此)(同)(时)(,存)(量)(房)(时)(代)(租)(赁)(市)(场)(也)(会)(更)(为)(活)(跃)(。根)(据)(国)(际)(大)(型)(城)(市)(情)(况)(,在)(存)(量)(房)(时)(代)(,租)(赁)(住)(房)(比)(例)(约)(占)(1/3,在)(特)(大)(城)(市)(可)(能)(更)(高)(。比)(如)(美)(国)(纽)(约)(2/3的)(房)(屋)(为)(承)(租)(人)(居)(住)(,日)(本)(东)(京)(更)(是)(占)(到)(60%。  看)(到)(租)(赁)(市)(场)(的)(机)(遇)(,目)(前)(包)(括)(互)(联)(网)(平)(台)(、经)(纪)(公)(司)(均)(推)(出)(了)(相)(应)(的)(公)(寓)(类)(产)(品)(。最)(近)(国)(内)(最)(大)(酒)(店)(集)(团)(之)(一)(铂)(涛)(推)(出)(了)(青)(年)(长)(租)(公)(寓)(“窝)(趣)(”,并)(将)(在)(北)(上)(广)(深)(加)(快)(布)(局)(。  “房)(地)(产)(已)(经)(从)(卖)(房)(时)(代)(逐)(渐)(向)(房)(产)(经)(营)(时)(代)(过)(渡)(。”窝)(趣)(创)(始)(人)(、CE0刘)(辉)(表)(示)(,对)(于)(传)(统)(的)(地)(产)(项)(目)(,窝)(趣)(这)(样)(的)(长)(租)(公)(寓)(能)(盘)(活)(空)(置)(房)(源)(,提)(高)(商)(业)(价)(值)(。同)(时)(对)(于)(一)(些)(新)(型)(的)(地)(产)(项)(目)(,可)(以)(从)(项)(目)(规)(划)(之)(初)(将)(长)(租)(公)(寓)(纳)(入)(规)(划)(板)(块)(,实)(现)(多)(种)(商)(业)(体)(的)(有)(机)(结)(合)(。  2 房)(企)(着)(眼)(城)(市)(旧)(改)(领)(域)(  存)(量)(房)(时)(代)(,伴)(随)(着)(一)(、二)(线)(城)(市)(都)(将)(进)(入)(“内)(向)(增)(长)(”阶)(段)(。旧)(城)(更)(新)(,必)(然)(成)(为)(城)(市)(发)(展)(的)(新)(增)(长)(点)(。  现)(如)(今)(,包)(括)(北)(京)(、上)(海)(等)(一)(线)(城)(市)(已)(经)(严)(格)(控)(制)(土)(地)(规)(划)(。面)(对)(“生)(产)(资)(料)(”的)(严)(格)(限)(制)(,不)(少)(房)(企)(已)(经)(将)(目)(光)(转)(向)(旧)(城)(改)(造)(业)(务)(。目)(前)(,包)(括)(首)(开)(地)(产)(、万)(科)(集)(团)(、富)(力)(地)(产)(、 阳)(光)(城)( 以)(及)( 中)(粮)(地)(产)( 等)(在)(内)(的)(房)(企)(都)(在)(着)(手)(这)(一)(业)(务)(。  首)(开)(董)(事)(长)(潘)(利)(群)(曾)(在)(接)(受)(媒)(体)(采)(访)(时)(表)(示)(,位)(于)(大)(中)(型)(城)(市)(内)(城)(的)(存)(量)(建)(筑)(的)(产)(品)(升)(级)(,既)(有)(广)(阔)(的)(市)(场)(前)(景)(,又)(有)(国)(家)(棚)(户)(区)(改)(造)(的)(战)(略)(支)(持)(。棚)(户)(区)(改)(造)(将)(成)(为)(首)(开)(在)(北)(京)(的)(重)(要)(业)(务)(组)(成)(部)(分)(之)(一)(。同)(时)(首)(开)(也)(希)(望)(在)(其)(他)(城)(市)(开)(展)(类)(似)(于)(棚)(户)(区)(改)(造)(的)(项)(目)(。  而)(就)(在)(9月)(份)(,首)(开)(在)(福)(建)(晋)(安)(拿)(下)(两)(幅)(旧)(改)(地)(块)(,溢)(价)(率)(高)(达)(126%,足)(见)(其)(对)(旧)(改)(项)(目)(的)(信)(心)(。  在)(业)(内)(看)(来)(,旧)(城)(更)(新)(是)(目)(前)(城)(市)(发)(展)(最)(大)(的)(机)(遇)(之)(一)(。2015年)(以)(后)(,城)(市)(进)(入)(“内)(向)(增)(长)(模)(式)(”。这)(个)(逻)(辑)(下)(,会)(有)(更)(多)(城)(市)(不)(得)(不)(去)(研)(究)(旧)(城)(更)(新)(,这)(对)(开)(发)(商)(而)(言)(也)(是)(巨)(大)(的)(机)(遇)(。来)(源)(中)(国)(新)(闻)(网)()
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